Unemployment figures describe people who have lost work. Job postings describe employers who intend to hire. The two series can move in opposite directions for a long stretch before either becomes a recession.

Reading the gap

A falling postings count with flat unemployment usually means firms are pausing rather than cutting. That is uncomfortable for anyone entering the market and largely invisible to anyone already employed.

Who absorbs it

Graduates, career switchers and contractors feel a hiring freeze first, and none of them show up clearly in the monthly headline.